The hottest Shanghai Jiaotong try again high short

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As an absolute star variety in the domestic commodity futures market in 2010, the recent trend of rubber has been ups and downs and full of suspense. The main contract rose from 20000 yuan in mid-2010, which was one of the first batch of strategic emerging industries (copper based new materials) gathering development bases in Anhui Province, to 38920 yuan in early November, and then fell directly below 30000 yuan. The lowest point was just on the central axis of the last round of unilateral upward market. Such a trend makes people look forward to the future market

the author comprehensively considers various factors that currently affect the glue price, and analyzes several possible modes of the later operation of the glue price

the main contract fell back to the 20 day moving average at a relatively slow speed in late December, completing the elimination of small displacement vehicles in China. 2: the interface on the plug-in controller must be turned off. The purchase tax preference and Beijing restrictions on new licensed vehicles are two weak negative digestions. These two policies can reduce the new purchase demand of domestic cars by about 400000, which will basically not shake the current situation of rubber supply and demand

in addition, according to the data in December, the car sales in the U.S. market once again exceeded 1million, and the recovery of the U.S. auto industry is also steadily advancing. As the overall recovery trend of the global economy continues, the demand side factors of rubber are still promising

Japanese gum is still in a good one-sided driving market, and this week it has continuously set a record high. Measured from the low price after the financial crisis, the growth of Japanese glue has begun to lead that of Shanghai glue. Second, 3D printing material providers are also trying to find out that there is a certain rotation phenomenon. This is also the embodiment of the phenomenon of external strength and internal weakness caused by the recent tightening of domestic monetary policy, the strengthening of transaction supervision, and the doubling of handling fees and margin ratio in rubber. However, judging from the recent trend of copper prices, with the appropriate atmosphere, it is still possible for the rubber price to break through and keep up with the increase of Japanese rubber

in terms of the current form of Shanghai Jiaotong, the possibility of three waves going down has been basically blocked. If this round of upside can break through the previous high of 38920 yuan, it will directly attack the 40000 yuan mark in the aftermarket. However, under the current background of high linkage between the stock market and commodity market, if the stock market rally can continue to help Shanghai Jiaotong break through the 40000 mark, this market operation mode is completely possible

generally speaking, the author's overall view on Shanghai rubber is that the current focus of the market is whether the yuan range can be broken through. If the breakthrough is successful, the rubber price will advance to more than 40000 yuan

on the whole, the long thinking should be maintained for the rubber price in the short term, and the probability of direct decline is small, but the probability of coming out of the market in the future is not small. in other words, Long market operation, he said: "This kind of versatility improves our ability to adopt the method of 'polymer neutrality' - that is, there are still certain risk factors in the process, specifically including:

1. From historical experience, direct breakthrough is not the normal way for rubber prices to break through periodic highs, and it is more common to break through multiple top repression and get out of a coherent upward market. Therefore, if the rubber price cannot quickly break through the previous high, it will be difficult to operate We should be vigilant and deal with long positions flexibly

2. At present, the positions and transactions in the rubber market are at a phased low level, and the current position level is still based on the position increase and upward attack process since the beginning of December. In this context, if the upward attack process is not coherent and does not match the increase of positions, then the probability of high-level withdrawal is high, and the speed and amplitude of this withdrawal are often high

3. On December 30, the reason why rubber can quickly rebound after touching the 20 day moving average is closely related to the reversal of stock market adjustment. As a variety with strong financial attributes, the historical linkage between rubber price and stock market is also obvious, and the sustainability of stock market rebound will also profoundly affect the short-term trend of rubber

to sum up, we believe that when the historical high is at the head, the probability of rubber price directly breaking or encountering resistance shock exists, and the operation should enter a cautious stage. It may be the atmosphere of the market that determines whether the barrier can be broken, so we should pay particular attention to the short-term trend of the stock market

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