India's industrialization will affect global steel

2022-08-18
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India's industrialization development will affect global steel consumption in the next decade

India's industrialization development will affect global steel consumption in the next decade

China's construction machinery information

Guide: India has always been the main source of iron ore in China, but with the rise of India's steel consumption, it began to restrict the export of primary ore products. In the first quarter of this year, the amount of Indian ore imported by China has decreased sharply by 20%. In addition, in May, the Indian environment minister said that POSCO's steel plants in India should not be exported

India has always been the main source of iron ore in China, but with the rise of steel consumption in India, it began to restrict the export of primary ore products. In the first quarter of this year, the amount of Indian ore imported by China has fallen sharply by 20%. In addition, in May, the Indian environment minister said that POSCO's steel plants in India should not export raw materials, including iron ore. All these show that India's role in the world iron ore industry chain is changing

the demand for steel in India is significantly increasing. Recently, the International Steel Association released a forecast that the growth rate of steel demand in India will reach 13.3% in 2011, much higher than the global growth rate of 5.9%. In 2012, the growth rate of steel demand will increase to 14.3%? Driven by demand, the steel import volume in fiscal year 2011 may reach 10million tons

will India change from a major iron ore exporter to an importer, and how will it affect the world steel industry. The answer to these concerns is how to consume steel in India's urbanization and industrialization

a consensus is that the urbanization and industrialization of a country is a leap period for the growth of mineral resources consumption

reviewing the development of urbanization in China, the consumption intensity of steel is amazing. In 2010, China's urbanization rate reached 49.7%, a significant increase of 13.46 percentage points over 2000. In the same period, China's steel production increased significantly in just a decade, with 128.5 million tons of domestic steel in 2000; In 2010, the steel production reached 627 million tons, accounting for 44.3% of the global steel production. It has quintupled in the past decade, with an average annual compound growth of 17%. In the same period, the global crude steel production has an average annual growth of 5.2%. If China's output is deducted, the global steel production growth is only 0.89%, which is in a slow natural growth state

China has become the leader of global steel consumption in the past decade, and now it has entered the next decade. How will global steel consumption evolve? First of all, it is certain that in the next decade, China will still be one of the regions with the fastest increase in tensile strength and deformation rate of steel production. At present, the per capita consumption is 400 kg per year, and there is still much room for growth

but in addition to China, other countries have also entered urbanization and industrialization, such as India. It can be predicted that the global crude steel production will still maintain a high growth rate in the next decade

generally speaking, the per capita GNP of 1000 to 3000 US dollars is a period of rapid growth in steel production and consumption; Three to six thousand dollars is a period of steady and slow growth; More than $6000 is a period of decline in steel production capacity. According to the International Monetary Fund, India's per capita GDP in 2010 was US $1176, and India has embarked on the initial stage of rapid growth in steel consumption

the level of thermal properties of plastic materials in plastic thermoforming processing, ASTM, is just at the stage of 2003 in China. In 2003, China's per capita output of crude steel reached US $1000 and 172 kg, marking the beginning of a rapid increase in steel output. In 2010, China's per capita output was about 450 kg, with an average annual growth rate of 15% over the past seven years

in addition, India's economic growth is accelerating. In the fourth quarter of 2010, GDP increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the average annual growth in the next five years is expected to remain above 9%. Moreover, the growth of steel consumption in India has accelerated, and the per capita consumption of finished steel products increased from 31.3kg in 2003 to 55.3kg in 2009, with an average annual compound growth of 8.9%. Of course, India is important to the global market because, like China, it has a population of more than one billion

although the Indian economy is facing more challenges, such as low national education and slow infrastructure construction. However, we cannot underestimate India's steel consumption, because India will have the greatest potential for global demographic dividends. In March, 2010, India announced the structure of the census, with a total population of 1.21 billion, including 367million children. India's demographic dividend will exceed that of China. It is expected that India will add more than 170million urban workers between 2005 and 2025. In the same period, China's new urban workers will leave only 50million people with fatal safety hazards

at present, India's steel product consumption growth rate of 9% per year has actually affected the global iron ore pattern, and China's import of Indian ore has decreased significantly. In the first quarter of this year, China imported 177172700 tons of iron ore, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year. Among the three major import sources, Australia and Brazil increased by 5.57% and 29.24% year-on-year respectively, but the import volume of Indian minerals fell by 20.44%. The proportion of Indian minerals in China's import volume has fallen from 20% two years ago to less than 15%

in recent years, India's economy has grown rapidly, driving the enthusiasm of domestic steel enterprises for capacity expansion. Tata, the Indian steel authority and other companies have expanded their production, strengthening the consumption of iron ore. Indian steel mills consume more iron ore. The ratio of the country's iron ore production to domestic steel consumption fell from 2.3 in 2005 to 1.8 in 2010. The growth of iron ore production significantly lagged behind the growth of demand

of course, the Indian government also has an ambitious plan. The Indian Ministry of steel hopes that the annual production capacity of crude steel will reach 145 million tons by the fiscal year, which means that the production capacity will nearly double from the current 78 million tons in the next five years. Of course, some analysts believe that the capacity expansion goal of the Indian Ministry of steel is unrealistic, and the Indian steel capacity will reach 1% by the year 200 million tons

however, even if India's steel production capacity is difficult to double in five years, its steel production capacity will accelerate in the future. Especially after 2015, when the steel production capacity reaches 100 million tons, India's capacity expansion will really start. According to the prediction of the international iron and Steel Association, India's steel demand will reach 180 to 200 million tons in 2020. Personally, I believe that this is only a middle point of India's steel consumption growth, There is still huge room for growth

as a steel enterprise, how to deal with the huge potential capacity growth space in India in the future

China is the largest steel consumption market, and there is still some room for growth in the short term, but in the long term, the main battlefield for new global steel consumption in the future is India. Chinese steel mills cannot ignore the Indian market. The sooner they buy tickets and take a ride, the more opportunities they have to take to avoid future trade barriers. It is better to build steel mills directly to the place of demand than to build factories in developed countries such as the United States. In fact, Korean and Japanese steel mills have begun to build factories in India, and Chinese enterprises have lagged behind Japan and South Korea in this regard

in addition, in the face of potential surging ore demand in the future, it is necessary to prepare as soon as possible. At present, the ore price is high. After 2012, some iron ore projects will reach production capacity one after another, but in the long run, the growth of global steel demand will continue to outperform the expansion of iron ore production. In the next decade, iron ore consumption is still tight, and the work of iron and steel enterprises to ensure ore sources is still a long-term project

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